In just over 30 minutes, Roger Federer will attempt to defend his Australian Open title against one of the most enigmatic players in the men's game today — Fernando Gonzalez. Along with Serena Williams' long-awaited return to tennis and her masterful title match against top-ranked Maria Sharapova, Gonzalez has been the story at this year's championships in Melbourne.
He has cruised through his half of the draw in blazing style, beating in succession James Blake, Rafael Nadal, and Tomy Haas, all in straight sets. His winners-to-unforced errors differential is over +190, more than 100 points better than Federer's, and in his semifinal match against Haas he made only three unforced errors in the entire three-set match, none at all in sets one and three. To say Gonzalez is on fire would be a huge understatement. And yet, it is Roger Federer he will be facing across the net this morning, a fact which changes the entire equation.
Ordinarily not one to predict outcomes, I've got a sneaking suspicion that Federer will show the world just how much wider the gap is between himself and the rest of the men's field. Because Gonzalez is playing so brilliantly, serving smartly and using the entire court and varying the spins, depth and pace of his groundstrokes to make opportunities to end points with one swing of his racquet, Federer will need to employ a different strategy to keep Gonzalez from gaining confidence as the match wears on. I believe that Federer will take a page from the Sampras playbook, and take away Gonzalez's time by approaching the net earlier and much more frequently than he has thus far in his career.
The wise strategy for Federer is to keep Gonzalez on his heels, searching for a quick answer to Federer's strong forays to net, and to do so early and often so as to put maximum pressure on Gonzalez's groundstrokes. By coming to the net early and often, Federer can prohibit Gonzalez from finding his form on his groundstrokes and dictating the pace and tempo of the match. And if Gonzalez cannot find the spot with his passing shots and lobs early on, he will be forced to play a much more aggressive strategy, perhaps even choosing to try to beat Federer to the net to stem the bleeding.
We may very well witness, in this 2007 Australian Open men's final, the raising of the bar by the world's best player. And he'll do it, not so much because he'll need to do so to win, but because it will bring him victory much sooner than if he were to stay on the baseline and trade strokes with his opponent. And if he can successfully demonstrate his prowess as a serving-and-volleying, net-aproaching pre-emptive striker, he'll have sent another strong message to those trying to "close the gap" between them. And that message is that Roger Federer has no intention of resting on his laurels; he plans to continue improving and adding to his arsenal of weapons, strategies and tactics.
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This material is copyrighted and may not be reprinted or reproduced without the express written or verbal consent of the author. Thank you for your cooperation.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
4 comments:
Well Don,
Good predictions and for the most part you hit the ball squarely in the sweet spot.
Federer did play an all court game with more approaches to the net as you predicted he would. He didn't really play a serve and volley game al Pat Rafter but more a game melded from the likes of Pete Sampras and Andre Aggasi.
And what an effective mix that game turned out to be. It was Gonzales, the court covering machine, that was left gasping for breath as Roger calmly moved him around like a cat playing with his dinner, until he was ready for the sure kill.
Gonzales played a great tournament and there were moments in the first set that gave hope, but in the end Roger Federer proved to have the better strategy, the fitter legs and the better strokes.
I know you have pointed this out before, but Roger does have a weekness and Gonzales tried to take advantage of it early on then seemed to lose the ability to hit those high bouncing seves and shots to Roger's back hand. There is definately a weakness there that I think a young Johnny Mac could have taken advantage of with his lefty serve wide in the ad court. It wouldn't be pretty but I think Johnny Mac could have beaten Roger on a surface like Melbournes.
TWR
You sure got this one right.
Tom in Smalltown
fed did just enough to beat gonzalez he did not play anywhere near the high level he showed vs roddick in the semis
anonymous said...
I'll have to disagree with you. The two matches represented very different challenges for Federer, and he rose to each magnificently.
In his match against Roddick, he found ways to pull Roddick out of his comfort zone and force him to hit loopy approach shots from poor positions on the court (mostly from short in the ad court doubles alley), which then provided at least three or four good pass opportunities. First, he was able to take Roddick's loopier-than-usual-due-to-his-court-position inside-out forehands to the ad corner and either (1) bunt them flat on the short bounce up the line past an outstretched Roddick, (2) wing them with lots of topspin back behind Roddick as he tries to cover the center and up-the-line shot, (3) lob deep to the open ad court, or (4) hit a topspin lob anywhere on the ad court side. Roddick was forced to approach on balls he didn't really like, because Federer played the whooe court, not just deep to the baseline and corners. And, of course, Federer returned Roddick's serve like nobody's business. Roddick neded to utilize his kicker a lot more to have a chance.
Against Gonzzlez, after a rough start (primarily due to Gonzo's terrific serving and Federer's less-than-stellar serving), Federer worked the old Pete Sampras tactic and did everything he could to take away Gonzo' time, because he knew that with time on his side, Gonzo would eventually be able to get into position to fire his cannon. So Federer attcked the net more freuently and sooner than usual, and he made many more pre-emptive strikes at the ball, going big before Gonzo did, thus keeping Gonzo on his heels, playing a defensive game. Gonzo responded in the 2nd and 3rd sets by trying to turn the tables on Federer, but that just brought our the old Gonzo, the slash and burn Gonzo.
Anonymous said... you'll have to produce some real argument here, with facts if you can dig them up. Blanket statements with no supporting evidence (like you made) just don't wash.
--Don
Post a Comment